It’s raining. Or is it? Challenge your perspective

I check the weather report every morning. It will come as no surprise to anyone who knows me that I do not simply listen to the report on the news. I check the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service website. Doesn’t everyone? I’m not planning to scale Mt. Rainier or do a little ocean kayaking. I just want to pick the best time for a walk and make sure I am dressed appropriately.

Imagine my delight today, when I read 46° F and increasing clouds. Even with the windchill, it would still be above freezing. I checked the charts. High temperature predicted for one pm. Precipitation potential looked like a roller coaster, but the accumulation was negligible at six one-hundredths of an inch. In the Puget Sound, this is nothing. The steam in my breath probably contributes that much to the moisture in the air.

With a smile on my face, I returned to writing. In the stillness of that moment, I heard the truth. Torrents of rain splashing on the roof, pinging my window, and running through the downspout. I cannot overstate this. Even by Washington standards, it was pouring. Of course, I returned to the chart to see if I’d entered the wrong zip code. No luck. The chart was wrong. It was pouring.

I wondered why I hadn’t noticed it before. Sure, I still would have checked the chart, hoping for a pause in the rain later. But I hadn’t even started with my own experience. What does it matter what the chart says, if I can actually see, feel, and hear the rain that the experts say is not there? This is not to besmirch the weather service. I find NOAA to be quite accurate. However, they do use predictive models and, because conditions change, they can get it wrong sometimes. More to the point, this event made me wonder about when and how often I seek an outside source to confirm my knowledge or beliefs, even to define them, without consulting my own lived experience or critically analyzing their claims.

Partially out of curiosity and partially for entertainment, I listen to the opposing positions shared on popular and social media. I see vehement support on each side of almost every topic: the economy, women’s rights, health care, the environment, vaccination, parenting, immigration, climate change . . . the list is endless. On the surface, if you listen to the arguments from opposing positions, the explanations and rationalizations might seem logical. Sometimes they even use the same data and research to bolster their positions.

How can that be if they ultimately disagree? Research around confirmation bias tells us that if these arguments align with our own values and belief systems, we will not only notice and pay attention to them more, but we will give greater weight to the evidence that aligns with our beliefs.  In effect, we look for and collect evidence that our beliefs are correct. Consider these two headlines written three days apart:

Americans have a new thing to worry about: A stuck job market with no quick fix (December 19, 2025) and US added 64K jobs in November after losing 105K in October, delayed report shows (December 16, 2025). Using the same data, they share very different perspectives and conclusions.

Our own beliefs and values may very well be the right ones. I certainly think mine are. Frankly, all these issues are just too much to research and learn about (even for a compulsive researcher like me). And yet, we are greatly impacted by each one. So, what do we do? We naturally seek guidance from trusted friends and family, resources, experts, and the media.

Whether we are aware of it or not, we tend to seek these out to confirm our beliefs not to question them. And once they do confirm our beliefs, we are not inclined to question that. In addition, the algorithms feed us a steady diet of unchecked reports on social media, conflicting and biased news outlets, widespread use of marketing to influence individual political, religious and social beliefs, and the proliferation of AI to make all these seem real. Again, the algorithms lean toward confirming our beliefs not confronting them.

We can’t go through life questioning everything. We would be paralyzed, unable to act.

We also cannot go through life never questioning our beliefs and trusting only those sources that confirm them. We would become entrenched, never growing, learning, or changing.

We need to think critically and question explanations that align with our beliefs as well as  those that do not.

But how?

First, does it matter? The Shawshank Redemption should have won an Oscar. Children should be vaccinated. One of these positions requires some critical thinking. The other simply does not matter in the long run. Use your time and energy on things that significantly impact you and the world.

If it matters, what do the experts say? Here’s where critical thinking comes into play. Don’t take it on face value that someone is an expert because they have an enthusiastic opinion and an extensive media platform. Ask the right questions about an expert’s background. My doctor is unquestionably smart, but I am not going to ask her opinion on economic issues.

If an expert quotes the research, don’t assume it’s legitimate. Claims on nutritional policy based on research funded by a candy company with one week of data collection on twelve male geriatric hamsters on a steady diet of mango juice are, at best, questionable. We make big decisions about our health, our children, education, and other critical areas based on what we read and hear from people who claim to know what they are talking about. That’s a lot of power to give away without a few questions.

Does it challenge your personal beliefs and values? Are you avoiding challenges to your beliefs out of fear of the consequences? Challenges to our beliefs and values might solidify them, or change them completely, or fine-tune and clarify them. The issues we face today are complex. If we do not explore the facets and leave room for examining definitive claims, we are doing ourselves and each other a grave disservice. The world is rarely dichotomous. Right or wrong. Good or bad. Even with a belief as fundamental and clear as the sanctity of life, real people are faced with a myriad of heart-breaking situations each day that force them to decide ‘whose life?’. We have to be willing to critically listen to information and perspectives that challenge our beliefs, and be prepare for our beliefs to be reinforced or altered or dashed completely.

What do my gut, my lived experience, my heart say? We do not live in isolation. We are pack creatures. Social belonging matters to our well-being and survival. When we are faced with an idea that goes against the widely and strongly held beliefs of our families, social community, faith community, political group, or business network, it is tempting to go along. If you’re talking about the Oscar-worthiness of The Shawshank Redemption, I say go along to get along. It doesn’t matter. For everything else, pay attention to what your experiencing and feeling. You know when something doesn’t seem quite right. When it comes to those things, the price for going along is a lot higher.

It’s raining. Believing the expert’s chart doesn’t change that. I’m going to get soaked today, but at least now I know to put a coat on. Tomorrow, I will again wake up and check the National Weather Service. I’m also going to listen more closely and open the window blinds to see what is really happening out there. Though the weather is certainly not as critical as education policy, women’s rights, or health care cost, I will let the cold rain today be a reminder the truth might be uncomfortable but ignoring it has greater consequences.

Copyright Catherine Matthews 2026